摘 要：证券行业的激烈竞争使得传统业务给国内券商带来利润增长的贡献不断减少，越来越多的券商开始积极开展创新业务，开拓新的收入渠道。本文基于国内9家上市券商2009-2014年半年度数据，采用面板数据分析，定量研究了券商收入结构对其盈利能力的影响。结果表明，证券公司传统业务收入对券商盈利能力影响是正向的。相反的是，创新业务收入占比对券商盈利能力的影响是负向的，其中投资银行业务收入占比近年来不断提高，相对于其他创新业务收入占比要高些，但对券商盈利能力却没有产生积极影响，且影响不显著。券商在开展多元化业务，优化收入结构时须要控制业务成本费用才能有效提高其盈利能力。适中的券商规模能促进盈利能力的增强。券商的盈利能力与宏观经济的增长性一致。65089

关键字：收入结构，创新业务收入，上市券商，盈利能力

Abstract：The fierce competition in the security industry makes the traditional business bring fewer and fewer contributions to the growth of domestic securities dealer’s profit. More and more firms began to develop the new business and income streams actively. Based on the 2009--2014 semi-annual data of nine domestic listed securities firms, adapting panel data analysis and quantitatively analyzing the impact that the dealers’ income structure put on their profitability. The results prove that the traditional business income has a positive impact on dealers’ profitability. On the contrary, the innovation income’s proportion has a negative impact. The income of investing banks accounts more and more shares in recent years, making up more than other innovation incomes relatively. However, it does not produce a positive effect on the dealers’ profitability or the effect is not obvious. In order to improve the profitability, the firms must control the operation costs when they develop the persified businesses and optimize the income structure. The moderate scale can promote the profitability to be enhanced. And the dealers’ profitability is in line with the macroeconomic growth.

Keywords: revenue structure, innovative business income, listed brokerage, profitability

目 录

1  引言 3

1.1  国内证券业发展现状 3

1.2  研究性文献综述 3

2  样本、变量选取与处理 4

2.1  样本的选择及数据的来源 4

2.2  变量选取 5

2.3  样本变量的描述性统计 6

3  回归模型的构建及其结果 7

3.1  回归模型的构建 7

3.2  模型的回归结果 8

4  回归结果分析 10

4.1  模型整体效果的分析 10

4.2  解释变量的分析 10

4.3  控制变量的分析 10

5  启示与建议 11

结  论 12

参考文献 13

致谢 14

1  引言

1.1  国内证券业发展现状

    我国证券业经历了两个发展阶段：一是发展初期普遍跑马圈地，扩大市场份额，开拓利润空间的扩张阶段；二是深化既有服务和提高商业附加值的自我优化阶段。如今，我国证券业进入了行业兼并，强强联合、强弱联合，鼓励优质公司做大做强的新阶段。这一时期，国内券商走集团化创新这种模式。一方面通过规模扩张，扩充网点布局，实现规模效应。另一方面，提升业务盈利模式，改善收入结构，在确保收入和交易量的同时，使业务结构更加均衡，避免出现过度依靠单项业务，导致收入剧烈波动的情形。