摘要良性的居民消费对于国民经济持续稳定的增长有着重要的促进作用，因此研究一个城镇居民的消费情况对于研究该地区所处的经济现状、经济发展具有十分重要意义的。本文通过1996年至2014年间《江苏省统计年鉴》的城镇居民消费数据进行分析，研究江苏省城镇居民的消费结构、消费规律等。通过分析其恩格尔系数，预测未来消费发展趋势。本文运用统计软件SPSS进行数据的处理。86727

通过数据分析得出在八项基本消费支出中，食品消费是最主要的，而依次是衣着和居住，不过近几年情况有所改变。之后，通过统计软件建立回归模型，对未来几年江苏城镇居民的消费支出作出趋势预测。结果显示：恩格尔系数还是稳定地小幅下降，食品消费所占比例也逐年减少，江苏省城镇居民生活水平在稳步提高。通过预测，给出相应的建议，完善消费结构，促进经济发展与人民健康生活。

最后，分析各市消费情况，与总体进行相比较，对各市消费结构聚类分析，再给出相应的提高消费水平的建议。

毕业论文关键词：消费结构；恩格尔系数；回归模型；预测，聚类分析

Abstract Positive consumption of residents has an important role in promoting the sustained and steady growth of the national economy。  Therefore, It is very important to study the consumption situation of the urban residents in the area of economic status and economic development。 In this paper, the consumption structure and consumption pattern of urban residents in Jiangsu Province are researched through the 1996 to 2014 years statistical yearbook of Jiangsu Province。 By analyzing the Engel coefficient analysis, the future development trend of the consumption is forecasted。 The SPSS statistical software is used to handle the data in the article。 

Through the analysis of the data, it is obtained that the most important consumption is food, the next are clothing and living in the eight basic consumptions, but the situation has changed in recent years。 Then, the regression model was established by statistical software, and the consumption expenditure of urban residents in Jiangsu in the next few years was predicted。 The results show that: the Engel coefficient is stable and slightly decreased, the proportion of food consumption is also reduced year by year, the living standard of urban residents in Jiangsu province has been steadily improved。 Through the forecast, we give the corresponding suggestion, perfect the consumption structure, and promote the economic development and people's healthy life。

Finally, the consumption of the cities is analyzed, and compared with the overall in Jiangsu。 The cluster analysis is performed through the data of the consumption structure of the city, moreover, the corresponding recommendations to improve the consumption level is given。

Keywords: Consumption structure; Engel coefficient; Regression model; Forecast; Cluster analysis

目   录

第一章  绪  论 1

1。1  选题的目的和意义 1

1。2  国内外研究现状及存在的问题 1

第二章  主要研究内容 4

2。1  消费结构的基本认识 4

2。2  影响消费结构的主要因素 4

2。2  研究方法 4

第三章  处理与分析 6

3。1  收入与恩格尔系数 6

3。2  回归模型 7

3。2。1  食品消费所占比例回归模型 8

3。2。2  其他消费所占比例回归模型 9

3。3  预测未来消费结构  10

3。4  江苏各市城镇居民消费结构  10

3。4。1  消费支出比重分析 10

3。2。2  聚类分析 11