摘   要如今我国的城市化正处于飞速发展的阶段，城市化的发展意味着城市用地的不断扩张，随之而来的就是土地利用的问题。如何对土地进行合理的利用并且减少对生态环境的影响，需要我们深入的研究城市土地的变化规律，并对未来土地利用扩张进行合理的规划模拟。76480

改革开放以来，我国经济得到飞速发展，人口在不断增加。人口不断向城市涌去，使得城市用地在不断的扩张，导致了农田、林地、草地的生态用地不断较少，带来了很多环境问题，如果还对其放任不管，必然会引起更加严重的后果。所以我们需要合理的规划城市化的发展方向，使其合理的发展。建立城市土地扩张的模型是我们研究发展的有效方法。

在前人相关研究的基础上运用Logistic-CA模型,以如何合理进行城镇扩展为目标，本篇论文运用了元胞自动机理论和GIS技术等，系统的研究了城镇用地扩展模拟的理论与方法，并以南京市六合区为研究区域，对该地区城市土地利用扩张进行模拟分析研究。在ArcGIS中建立了模型后，以南京六合区作为试验区，对模型进行了模拟研究。通过对随机参数的修改，然后对城市用地扩张进行多次模拟，分析随机因素对模拟结果精度的影响，进行研究。结果表明，随机因素对城镇用地扩张模拟模型的精度有一定的影响，需要我们在以后模拟城镇用地扩张考虑随机因素的影响，增加模拟的精度，有利于对城镇用地的规划。

毕业论文关键词：Logistic-CA模型，ArcGIS，南京六合区

Abstract    Now our country is in rapid development stage of urbanization, the development of the urbanization means the continuous expansion of urban land, and land use。 How to reasonable use of the land and reduce the impact on the ecological environment, we need to research the change rule of urban land, and for the future expansion of reasonable land use planning simulation。             

    Since reform and opening-up, our country economy rapid development, the population is increasing。 There was a population into the city, make the urban land is constantly expanding, led to the farmland, forest land, grassland ecological land and less, has brought a lot of environmental problems if it is the, is bound to cause more serious consequences。 So we need a reasonable planning the development direction of urbanization, the reasonable development。 Establish a model of urban land expansion is an effective method of our research and development。 

On the basis of predecessors' research using Logistic - CA model, aiming at how to reasonable urban expansion, this paper USES the theory of cellular automata (CA) and GIS techniques, system research of the urban land expansion simulation theory and method, and the Liuhe district, Nanjing city as the study area, urban land use expansion in the area are simulated analysis。 After established model in ArcGIS to Liuhe district of Nanjing as the experimental zone, the model is simulated。 Through modification of random parameters, and then to simulate the urban land expansion multiple, analyze the effect of random factors on the accuracy of the simulation results were studied。 Results show that the stochastic factors of urban sprawl is of certain influence to the precision of the simulation model, we need in the simulation of urban land expansion after considering the influence of random factors, to improve the accuracy of the simulation is helpful to the urban land use planning。

Key words： Logistic - CA model，ArcGIS,  Liuhe district of Nanjing

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