摘要近些年来，交通运输行业发展迅速，虽然对社会经济的发展起到了不可替代的重要作用，但同时也使得道路交通事故的案例大大增多，导致人民群众的生命和财产受到了严重的威胁。因此，及时预防或减少交通事故的发生，降低交通事故造成的损失，改善交通安全状况，已成为目前我国社会的迫切需求。87479

本文结合江苏省道路交通安全问题的现状，首先对道路交通事故与交通安全影响因素进行了研究，从人、车、路、环境四个方面对交通事故发生的原因进行了分析；其次，对近年来江苏省道路交通事故数据进行分析，并结合江苏省实际状况对这些道路交通事故进行成因总结；然后，提出了了道路安全评价的指标和方法，并利用物元法理论，建立了安全评价指标体系，再建立了基于物元学的道路交通安全评价模型，进行了物元多指标综合评价理论分析；最后，研究探索二次指数平滑法预测基本模型，建立了基于二次指数平滑理论的道路交通信息预测模型。

毕业论文关键词  道路交通事故；安全评价；物元法；事故预测；二次指数平滑法预测

毕业设计说明书外文摘要

Title    A Study of the Analysis and the Prediction Model on the    Influencing Factors of Road Traffic Safety of Jiangsu Province                                       

Abstract In recent years, with the rapid development of the transportation industry, although it play a irreplaceable important role in the economic and social development, but at the same time, the road traffic accident case greatly increased, resulting in serious threat to people's life and property。 Promptly preventing or reducing traffic accidents, reducing the losses caused by traffic accidents and improving traffic safety have become the urgent needs of our society。 

In this paper, first of all, combining with the current situation of road traffic safety problem, traffic safety have been studied, and the reasons are analyzed in four classes: people, cars, roads and the environments。 Secondly, this paper did a summary of the causes of these road accidents。 Then Road safety evaluation index and method were introduced, on that basis, this paper built a road traffic safety evaluation model based on Matter element method , set up the safety evaluation index system, and carried out matter element method for comprehensive evaluation of theoretical analysis。 And finally, this paper studied and explored the basic secondary exponential smoothying method , then established a road traffic information prediction model based on the secondary exponential smoothying method。

Keywords  Road Traffic Accidents; Safety Evaluation ; Matter element method ; Accident Prediction; Secondary exponential smoothying method。

目   次

1  绪论 1

1。1  研究背景 1来-自+优Y尔E论L文W网www.youerw.com 加QQ752018^766

1。2  研究目的及意义 1

1。3  国内外研究现状 2

1。4  研究内容、方法及技术路线 4

2  道路交通事故的影响因素分析 6

2。1  道路交通事故 6

2。2  道路交通事故成因分析 7

2。3  影响因素小结 10

3  道路交通安全评价指标体系