摘要近几年来，随着经济与科技的飞速发展，人类生活条件在不断提升的同时，也出现了许多问题。人类肆意挥霍不可再生能源并且任性破坏地球的环境导致了能源危机和环境污染的日益严重。在这种情况下，分布式发电因其灵活可靠环保等独有的优点得到了飞速的发展72349

本文首先着手介绍了分布式发电的国际和国内背景，研究可靠性的意义与必要性和含分布式电源的发电系统可靠性的研究。开始分析研究分布式发电系统可靠性方法。然后，分别介绍了分布式发电的工作原理、基本分类以及特有的优点，接着给出了几种分布式电源模型及其工作原理、出力模型以及功率曲线。随之分析了分布式电源的并网，由不同的接入位置和接入方式引出了分布式电源不同的工作方式。接着又根据分布式电源输出功率的特点讨论了发电系统的可靠性模型如传统的双状态模型、小水电机组改进的双状态模型和利用集群技术，将较多机组集合成较少的组群，建立风力分布式发电的可靠性模型。然后因为应用已有的传统算法计算复杂，提出应用改进的发电系统停运容量概率模型，化繁为简节约计算时间。分析发电系统的可靠性时，假设输电和配电环节均可靠，因此只需要考虑发电机与负荷两个环节，再将发电机容量以及日所需最大负荷进行结合，形成新型发电系统可靠性评估方法。再通过算例得知，改进的评估体系耗时更少，效率更高。对研究分布式发电系统可靠性有着积极意义。最后，根据对分布式发电系统可靠性的评估结果，总结当下并展望未来，提出了改善供电可靠性的几种有效的方法。

毕业论文关键词：分布式电源  可靠性  集群技术  裕度评估 

Reliability Analysis Method for Distributed Generation System

Abstract Recently, the rapid development of economy and technology improves human living condition a lot。 but it also leads to numerous problems。 Human squander non-renewable resources recklessly and destroy the Earth willfully, which aggravates the energy crisis and environmental pollution。 In this case, the distributed generation has been developed rapidly because of its unique advantages such as flexible and reliable environmental protection。

Firstly, this paper introduces the international and domestic background of distributed generation, and does research on the meaning and necessity of its reliability and the generation system containing distributed power。 Then, it starts to analysis the methods of reliability about distributed generation。 It also introduces the working principle。classification and unique advantages of distributed generation respectively, followed by giving several models and their working principles, output models and the power curve。 And it analysis the distributed power grid, which may bring out different working ways of distributed power supply by accessing to different locations and modes。

Secondly。 this paper discusses the reliable of power system according to the features of output power from distributed power supply。 Such as the traditional double state model。 Double state model reorganized by motor and reliability model built by using cluster technology to integrate more collection units into less units。

Thirdly。 Because of the traditional algorithm has been applied to the computational complexity, the application of an improved generation system outage capacity probability model, to simplify and reduce computation time。 Power system reliability analysis, assuming the transmission and distribution sectors are reliable, therefore only need to consider two aspects of the generator and load, and the 

combination of generator capacity and the maximum load, forming new power system reliability evaluation method。 And then through the example that, improvement of the assessment system is less time consuming, high efficiency。 On the research of distributed power generation system reliability has a positive significance。