摘    要消费是拉动经济增长的根本动力和生产的最终目的，其中居民消费作为消费的重要部分,对其消费行为的研究有助于人们的生活水平与质量的提高。居民的消费行为能够反映一定时期内消费者的消费需求，消费喜好和消费能力。根据中国共和国国家统计局数据，近三年来，我国城镇居民人口约占全国人口总数的百分之五十，但其消费额却高达全国居民消费总额的百分之七十。由此可见，城镇居民的消费行为变化将对市场供求状况产生巨大影响，本文根据ELES模型的基本理论，对2014年我国城镇居民消费支出数据进行处理，对我国城镇居民的消费结构进行了实证分析，借此对我国政府提出政策建议，促进我国城镇居民消费结构的进一步优化。90241

Consumption is the ultimate driving force of economic growth and the ultimate goal of production, in which residents consumption as an important part of consumption, the study of its consumption behavior will help people's living standards and quality improvement。Residents of consumer behavior can reflect a certain period of consumer demand, consumer preferences and spending power。According to the National Bureau of Statistics of the Republic of China, in the past three years, the population of urban residents in China accounts for about 50 percent of the total population, but its consumption is as high as 70 percent of the total household consumption。It can be seen that the change of consumption behavior of urban residents will have a great impact on the market supply and demand situation。 According to the basic theory of ELES model, this paper analyzes the consumption expenditure data of urban residents in China in 2014, and makes an empirical analysis on the consumption structure of urban residents in China , To China's policy recommendations to promote China's urban residents to further optimize the consumption structure。

毕业论文关键词：消费行为与特征; 消费结构; 政策; 扩展线性支出模型（ELES)

Keyword: Consumer behavior and characteristics; Consumption structure; Strategy;  ELES

目录

1。引言 4

2。文献综述 4

3。 我国城镇居民消费水平源Q于W优E尔A论S文R网wwW.yOueRw.com 原文+QQ75201,8766 变化趋势 8

3。1城镇居民消费水平的变化过程 8

3。2城镇居民消费特征的变化分析 8

4。城镇居民消费结构分析 9

4。1数据来源 9

4。2计量经济模型的估计与调整          9

4。2。1模型中参数的估计 9

4。2。2模型的计量经济学检验 10

4。2。3模型的修正 10

4。2。4经济意义和统计推断检验 11

5。ELES模型估计结果及分析 11

5。1边际消费倾向分析 11

5。2需求收入弹性分析 12

5。3需求自价格弹性分析 12

6。结论与对策建议 13

6。1研究结论 13

6。2政策建议 14

6。2。1提高居民收入，确保经济增长 14

6。2。2培育新的消费热点，扩展居民的消费领域