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摘要本文以江苏省南通市为研究对象，根据自2008年至2013年的耕地利用情况，对南通市2020年的耕地供需状况进行总体地、趋势性地分析及预测。针对有关影响因素，提出具体的对策以满足未来人们对粮食和营养的需求，落实耕地资源可持续利用的政策，确保我们的子孙有地可耕，同时也利于国家加强对土地利用的监管，为耕地保护提供依据。在展开具体研究过程中，本文的研究思路主要分为人口预测、耕地需求量预测以及土地供给量预测。在对人口进行预测时，结合指数增长法和一元线性回归法，分别求得南通市2020年人口为731.91万人和733.90万人，本文以它们的均值732.90万人作为最终结果。在对土地供给量预测时，将耕地细分为粮食作物用地、油料作物用地、蔬菜地以及棉花用地。在对粮食作物用地需求以及蔬菜地需求进行预测时，通过它们的单产求得最终结果。粮食单产为7132.36kg/hm2，根据相关公式计算粮食作物用地需求量为277.034x103hm2；蔬菜单产为37226.05kg/hm2，计算蔬菜地需求量为26.579kg/hm2。预测油料作物以及棉花用地需求量时，都是根据它们的面积变化规律进行分析。对油料作物用地需求量预测时，结合一元线性回归法、自然增长率法以及幂函数模型，以三者均值120.94x103hm2作为油料作物用地需求量；对棉花用地需求量预测时，结合一元线性回归法和对数函数模型，以两者均值32.227x103hm2作为棉花用地需求量，则南通市2020年耕地总需求为453.78x103hm2。而结合一元线性回归法和对数函数模型求得的耕地供给量只有429.046x103hm2，远小于预测出的耕地需求量，说明南通市2020年耕地将会出现供不应求的状态，将影响到南通市的和谐发展以及人民的生活，从此刻起，上至国家、政府，下至个人，必须认识到耕地形势的严峻性，采取措施，缓解耕地供需矛盾。针对南通市的实际情况以及出现的问题，可以通过文持人口数量、加大农业资金投入提高单产、政策补贴保护农民种粮积极性等措施来应对南通市耕地危机。26111
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毕业论文关键词：南通市, 耕地供需分析, 预测, 解决对策
Analysis of dynamic balance about cultivated land supply and demand Taking Nantong City as the example
Abstract
According to the use of the cultivated land from 2008 to 2013, this paper takes Nantong City of Jiangsu Province as the object of study to analyze and forecast its supply and demand about cultivated land.We puts forwards some measures to meet the needs of people for food and nutrition in the future.At the same time, it is beneficial to ensure that our descendants have enough cultivated land and to strengthen the management of the land. It can also provide evidences to protect the cultivated land. This paper contains three parts:population prediction, the prediction of cultivated land demand and the prediction of cultivated land
Supply. When we predict the population, we combine the exponential growth and monadic linear regression .Finally,we take their average 7.329 million as the result. Land for food crops,oil crops,vegetables and cotton land all belong to cultivated land. We predict the demand for food crops and vegetable land through calculating their unit yield. The per unit area yield of grain is 7132.36kg/hm2, so the demand of land for food crops is 277.034x103hm2, the per unit area yield of vegetable is 37226.05kg/hm2,
so the demand of land for vegetables is 26.579kg/hm2. We analyze the regulaition for area of change to predict the demand of land for oil crops and cotton. Combined with unary linear regression,the natural growth rate and the model of power function,we take 120.94x103hm2 as the demand of land for oil crops.We combine the unary linear regression and logarithmic function to predict the demand for cotton land and finally we take 32.227x103hm2 as the tesult. So the total demand for cultivated land in Nantong City is 453.78x103hm2 in 2020,but the supply of cultivated land is only 429.046x103hm2.It means the cultivated land will not meet people in Nantong 2020. It will affect the harmonious development and the life of the people. From now on,our country,the government and the inpidual must be aware of the gravity of the cultivated land and take measures to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of the cultivated land.In the view of the actual situation and the problems, we can cope with these crisis by maintaining the populations,increasing the agricultural investment to improve yield ,some policies to encourage farmers and so on.