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摘要：大气环流模式（GCM）对大尺度气候的平均特征模拟效果较好。然而，GCM模型在区域气候模拟方面能力有限。统计降尺度方法的出现有效地解决了此类空间分辨率不匹配的问题。本文利用降尺度方法对徐州市未来降水变化趋势做模拟分析。在地面气候资料数据中以参考时段的逐月总降水量数据为基准，选取英国Hadley中心HadCM3 A2和B2两种情景下输出的大尺度气候变化因子，对徐州市未来降水进行降尺度研究。结果表明：使用变化因子(CF)降尺度方法能够合理地模拟出未来的降水变化情况；在两种温室气体排放情景模拟下，徐州市未来降水量的年内分布都呈现出不均匀的状态,但其变动幅度稍有差异；同时，降水量年际变化大且总体呈现波动下降的趋势。该结果可为徐州市未来降水情景模拟提供科学合理的依据，也可为相关决策部门提供参考。 40250
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毕业论文关键词：降尺度;CF方法;降水变化;徐州市
Analysis of Future Precipitation in Xuzhou by Using Downscaling Method
Abstract：General Circulation Model (GCM) is very effective at simulating climate characteristics at large scale climate. However, its ability of simulating regional climate is limited. Statistical downscaling methods can solve the problem of mismatching spatial resolutions efficiently, when employs it at local scale. This thesis simulates the future variation of precipitation in Xuzhou based on change factor (CF) downscaling method. By using the monthly total precipitation amounts data of the Xuzhou ground climate data during the reference period as the local scale predictands, and the ratios of future monthly mean rainfall to the reference period monthly mean rainfall output by GCM--HadCM3 under the A2 and B2 scenarios as the change factor, to study the precipitation in Xuzhou. The results show that ; The CF downscaling method can simulate the future variation of precipitation in Xuzhou reasonably; and in the future 30 years, the monthly precipitation amounts of Xuzhou are still uneven but have differences under the two scenarios; as well as the annual precipitation amounts vary in a overall trend of downwards. The results can provide scientific basis for the simulation of future precipitation in Xuzhou, as well as references for the relevant decision-making departments.
Keywords：downscaling model；CF method；precipitation variation；Xuzhou
目录
1 引言 1
1.1选题背景与研究意义 1
1.2国内外研究现状 1
1.3主要研究内容与技术路线 2
2 研究区概况与研究方法 3
2.1研究区概况 3
2.1.1地理位置 3
2.1.2自然特征 4
2.1.3社会经济状况 4
2.2数据来源与处理 4
2.2.1气象站点实测数据 4
2.2.2大尺度环流数据 5
2.3研究方法 6
2.3.1降尺度方法 6
2.3.2 变化因子(CF)方法 6
3 徐州市未来降水变化情景模拟 7
3.1 CF降尺度缩放因子 7
3.2未来三十年降水情景模拟及模型验证 7
3.2.1基准期（1961-1990）月平均降水量 7
3.2.2未来三十年（2010-2039）月平均降水量 8
3.2.3模型精度验证 8
4 徐州市未来降水变化趋势 9
4.1未来（2010-2039）年内降水变化分析 9
4.2未来（2010-2039）年际降水变化分析 9
4.3基准期（1961-1990）与未来（2010-2039）平均年降水量变化分析 10
5 总结与讨论 11