摘要：   随着广西经济的快速发展和广西高铁的实际运行里程增加，将直接影响到广西的公路运输，如何运用现有的资源条件，明确定位方向，与高铁和谐发展，是广西当前公路运输发展中急需解决的一个重要问题。本文以广西合浦县客运汽车站为例，探讨在南宁合浦高铁运营条件下，客运汽车站班车受到的影响以及最优调度问题。首先，文中分析了影响出行者选择运输方式出行行为的相关因素；然后设计调查问卷，通过行为意愿调查分析城镇，镇乡，城乡出行者特性、出行特性和运输方式特征等因素对出行者选择出行方式的影响，了解出行者对高铁客运的期望，以及对公路客运改进措施期望；最后，通过建立logit模型，预测客流分担率的变化，进而分析南宁合浦高铁运营对南宁合浦运输通道内公路客运的影响，提出该通道内公路客运应对高铁的竞争对策。 77559

毕业论文关键词：出行行为；客流分担率；logit模型；效用函数

Study on bus dispatching of public car station in Hepu ,Guangxi province

Abstract： With the rapid development of guangxi economic and practical operation of high-speed rail mileage increase in guangxi, will directly affect the highway transportation in guangxi, how to use the existing resources conditions, clear positioning direction, and the harmonious development of high-speed rail, is urgently needed to be solved in the development of the current highway transportation in guangxi is an important problem。In hepu county of guangxi passenger bus station as an example, this article discusses hepu in nanning high-speed operation conditions, the impact on passenger bus station train, and the optimal scheduling problem。Firstly, this paper analyzes the relevant factors that influence the travel behavior of the traveller。And then design the questionnaire, town, through the analysis of the behavior intention survey ZhenXiang, urban and rural people, travel and transportation characteristics influenced by the way of people choose to travel, learn traveler expectations of high-speed railway passenger transportation, as well as to the highway passenger transportation improvement measures expected;Finally, by establishing a logit model, forecast of passenger flow change, the share rate of nanning hepu is analyzed on the high-speed operation of nanning hepu passenger transport corridor, proposed the channel highway passenger high-speed competition countermeasures。

KeyWords ：Trip behavior;  passenger flow sharing rate;  Logit model；The utility function

目录

一  引言 1

   （一） 问题背景 1

   （二） 研究目的及意义 1

   （三） 研究方法及内容 2

二 相关理论 3

    (一)  出行方式选择理论 3

   1、出行因素 3

   2、 出行者自身条件 3

三 问卷设置和问卷调查 5

（一） 问卷设置与调查 5

（二） 数据整理 5

（三） 数据分析 6

1。 出行者自身条件的影响 6

2。 出行特性对出行方式选择的影响 8

3。 运输方式特性对出行方式选择的影响 8

4。 出行者对汽车客运的期望