摘    要观影作为一个消费行为，引导消费者的重要因素之一就是电影口碑。IP往往意味着高人气好口碑。本文基于对IP电影的理解，将前作设定为代表IP电影的影响力，通过数据搜集、建立理论模型并做出回归分析得出续作电影总票房只受到首周排片量的影响，前作票房以及年代间隔是厂商预期的影响因素，对续作电影的总票房不产生影响。前作票房、口碑反映出的市场讯号为厂商排片量提供依据，间隔时间对前作票房影响力造成影响，间隔时间越短越能反映出真实的市场讯号。而首周排片量造成的消费者首周观影口碑才是影响续作首周后票房主要因素。中国电影产业中的IP研发表面上看欣欣向荣，但实际上是欠缺原创作品的表现。盲目和不选择地开发IP，不追求IP作品的质量和口碑，不利于电影市场的长期发展，希望中国内地电影市场未来发展充斥原创精神，增强电影的生命力。89466

毕业论文关键词：电影票房；IP；电影口碑；前作

Abstract Viewing as a consumer behavior, and guide consumers is one of the important factors of movie word of mouth。 IP is often popular good word of mouth。 In this paper, based on the understanding of IP film, will be the first set to represent the IP influence of film, through data collection, establishing the theoretical model and make a regression analysis it is concluded that a sequel film grossed only affected by the first week of row piece quantity, its box office, and the influence factors of s interval is manufacturer anticipation, influence on total box office does not produce a sequel film。 Reflects its box office, word-of-mouth market signals provide the basis for manufacturers, arranged quantity, time interval affect its box office influence, the shorter the time interval, the signal can reflect the real market。 The first week of row piece quantity of consumers in the first week viewing word-of-mouth is the main factors influencing a sequel after the first week of box-office。 Research and development of IP on the surface of China's film industry is thriving, but in fact is a sign of lack of original works。 Blind and selectively develop IP, not the pursuit of IP work quality and word of mouth, not conducive to the long-term development of the film market, hope that the mainland film market future development are full of originality, enhance the vitality of the film。源Q于W优E尔A论S文R网wwW.yOueRw.com 原文+QQ75201,8766

Keyword: movie box office；Intellectual Property；movie word-of-mouth；previous movie

目录

一、 引言 6

（一）背景 6

（二）国内外研究综述——关于口碑和票房 6

（三）国内IP电影的发展 7

二、调查与数据 8

三、实证模型研究 10

四、 前作对续作票房的影响 11

（一）影响续作票房的因素 11

（二）厂商预期因素来自优Y尔L论W文Q网wWw.YouERw.com 加QQ7520~18766 分析 12

（三）关于首周口碑的残差分析 13

五、结论 14

（一）研究发现 14

（二）中国IP电影存在的问题 14

（三）启示与意义 15

参考文献 16