中国住房价格与股价汇率信贷等经济变量相关性分析
关键词 住房价格 金融市场 互动关系 VAR模型 VEC模型
毕业论文外文摘要
Title Correlation Analysis of Chinese Housing Prices and Stock Prices，Exchange Rates，The Amount of Loans and Other Economic Variables.
Abstract Since the 1980s,the rapid development of China's real estate plays an important role in solving the housing problems of residents and promoting economic development.It truly affects the lives of ordinary people, relates to the potential for economic development,and it has more to do with the economic policies of the national macro-control.This paper selects the most representative part of the macroeconomic——the financial market.It is pided into the stock market,credit market and foreign exchange market.In the way of building VEC model and VAR model by EViews 6.0,I analyzed the interaction between financial market volatility and changes in housing prices, found out the conduction mechanism of the housing price fluctuations on financial market in Open Economy.The results showed that:among the variables,the total amount of loans, stock prices, exchange rates have contribution to price fluctuations;they all have a positive response relationship in the short term,however,in the long term impact gradually tends to be stable;response of housing prices and the amount of loans is most significant,and the interaction has the cyclic self-intensified function,the second is the price;Besides,housing prices also make contributions to the amount of loans,stock prices and exchange rates.In addition to its influence,the price fluctuation is the greatest contributor to fluctuations in other variables.The purpose of this paper is to supplement and improve the related research,provide advice for investors and reference for policy makers,achieve the goal of controlling the risk of housing price fluctuations and maintaining stable economic development.
Keywords housing prices financial market interactive relationship VAR VEC
目 次
1 引言 1
1.1 问题的提出 1
1.2 研究意义 1
1.3 研究思路及方法 2
2 文献综述 4
2.1 房价与股票市场(变量)的关系 2
2.2 房价与信贷市场(变量)的关系 2
2.3 房价与汇率市场(变量)的关系 5
2.4 述评 6
3 待验证假说、数据与模型 7
3.1 待验证假说 7
3.2 数据说明 7
3.3 数据处理 9
3.4 数据检验 9
3.5 VAR模型12
4 实证分析14
4.1 平稳性检验14
4.2 协整检验14
4.3 建立VEC模型16