摘要白酒行业长期的低迷、短期的复苏以及未来的不确定性使得多数投资者望而却步，股票市场上白酒行业能否真正为投资者带来收益仍需进一步探究。本文基于宏观经济背景并结合数据分析了白酒行业发展现状，利用波特五力模型研究竞争力与发展战略，并依据财务报表评判白酒行业的盈利能力。此外，利用市盈率法、经济增加值法评估个股的投资价值，得出结论：高档白酒个股内在价值高,市值稳定,建议投资。最后以白酒市场的发展趋势以及股票市场的综合表现为出发点为投资者提供不同期限的投资建议，即逢低买进高档酒股，适时买入低估值蓝筹股，长期旁观低档酒股。51742

毕业论文关键词：白酒行业；产能过剩；行业分化；EVA

 Analysis on the Investment Value of Liquor Industry Stock Market

Abstract

The liquor industry’s long-term downturn, short-term recovery makes future uncertain, which leading majority investors hesitate to invest in liquor industry stock market, so if it can take profit to investors need further exploration. Then this thesis is based on the macro-economic background and combine with the data analysis of liquor industry development status, apply Porter's five forces model of competition as well as development strategy, and financial reports to analyze the evaluation of liquor industry profitability. In addition, taking advantage of Price-Earning ratio and single stock Economic Value Added methods in order to reflect the whole industry representation, get the conclusion that high grade liquor stocks intrinsic value is high, the market value is stable, so it worth being invested. Finally, focusing on the development trend of liquor market as well as the overall performance of the stock market, this article will put forward different period of investment suggestions for investors, that is properly buying high level wine stocks, timely buying undervalued blue chip stocks, observe low level wine stocks for long term.

Key Words：Liquor industry；Overmuch capacity；Industry differentiation； EVA 

目录

摘要 I

Abstract II

目录 III

一、引言 1

（一）研究背景及意义 1

（二）国内研究动态 1

二、白酒行业宏观经济背景和行业背景分析 2

（一）国家宏观经济发展形势 2

（二）白酒行业与宏观经济的关系 3

（三）小结 4

三、白酒行业基本面及财务分析 4

（一）白酒行业现状分析 4

（二）白酒行业竞争力分析 6

（三）发展战略分析 9

（四）财务分析 10

（五）小结 15

四、白酒行业估值分析 15

（一）白酒板块市盈率分析 15

（二）EVA简述 16

（三）基于EVA的贵州茅台价值评估 17

五、白酒行业的投资策略分析 21

（一）短期投资策略 21

（二）中短期投资策略 21

（三）中长期投资策略