DEA模型金融政策对房地产行业绩效的影响研究
由于房地产行业的资金需求量大，周期长，再加上我国房地产企业整体实力有限，房地产的开发过程对金融贷款依赖程度很大。金融政策的变化会通过利率，资产价格等途径影响到房地产企业的融资成本，库存量，销售量，进而影响到整个房地产企业的绩效。本文将研究自2010年房地产宏观调控以来，房地产行业绩效的动态变化，运用DEA模型分析国有及国有控股企业，大中型企业，私营企业，“三资”企业在面对金融政策调控时经营的有效性和应对危机的灵活性。9901
关键字：金融政策；房地产；DEA分析
毕 业 论 文 外 文 摘 要
Title The Study of The Effect of Financial Policies on the
Performance of The Real Estate Industry
Abstract
With the establishment of socialist market economy system．the real estate industry rapidly developments for national economy important industrial community and becomes the foundational，forerunner and prop industry of national economy．To promoting the real estate market continually，healthy，steady development，not only is advantageous to maintenance the entire national economy stable and quicker growth，also is advantageous to meet the people’s basic housing need and the living condition improvement．Meanwhile，it is more advantageous to achieve the basic goal of comprehensive construction of well-off society．
Real estate call for quantity big fund which is long cycle，in addition the overall ability of real estate enterprises is limited，So the process of real estate development istotally depends on the financial loan.Changes in financial policies will affect the financing cost,inventory and sales of the real estate through interest rate,asset prices and so on.Thus it will the performance of the entire real estate firms.
This paper will examine the dynamic changes of the performance of the real estate industry since the macroeconomic regulation and control in 2010.The paper will use DEA model to analyse the operating effectiveness and flexibility of dealing with crisis of the state-owned and controlled firms,large and medium-size firms,private firms and joint ventures when they face financial regulation.
Keywords financial policy;real estate;DEA analysis
目 次
1 引言 1
1.1 研究背景• 1
1.2 DEA在房地产公司绩效评价中的应用研究综述• 2
2 房地产业的发展和现状 2
2.1 房地产业的发展历程 2
2.2 房地产业的现状 4
3 利率变动对房地产市场的影响 4
4 基于DEA的房地产企业绩效的实证分析• 6
4.1 DEA方法概述• 6
4.2 构建DEA绩效评价应注意的问题 7
4.3 DMU选择和剔除原则• 8
4.4 输入输出指标体系建立•9
4.5 DEA模型介绍及选择• 11
4.6 数据处理14
4.7 实证分析15
结论 19
致谢 21
参考文献 21
1 引言
1.1研究背景
房地产行业是进行房产、地产的开发和经营的基础建筑行业，属于固定资产投资的范畴。房地产行业的周期性非常明显，该行业的复苏、繁荣、衰退和萧条四个阶段很大程度上受到宏观经济周期的影响。任何土地、金融、税收政策都会影响房地产行业的发展，影响房地产企业的绩效。如土地管理、城市规划、金融投资等相关政策的变动对房地产行业的开发经营影响往往是决定性。政府政策对房地产行业的影响巨大，会直接影响到房地产项目成本，影响居民对住房的需求和住宅的供给，影响房地产行业资金的流动状况，进一步影响企业绩效水平乃至整个行业的绩效水平。同时，房地产行业作为典型资金密集型行业，房地产的开发和运营往往具有投资规模大、产品开发周期长、资金周转慢、资产风险高的特征。这就意着，房地产行业一旦投入开发，很难在短时期内收回资金，通常要3年的时间才能完成投资的收回。房地产投资需要大量的资金，房地产企业的开发资金来源主要为银行贷款、利用外资、自筹资金、定金及各项预收款等。而国内房地产业对银行贷款的依赖性一直很重，在房地产开发资金来源中，银行信贷仍然是其主要渠道。因此，金融政策的变动将在很大程度上影响房地产企业的资金成本，影响房地产企业的销售量，进而影响到企业的绩效。
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