摘  要：本文针对我国的房地产行业的，对房地产信贷和房地产价格之间的关系进行了系统的分析。当房地产价格上涨，会导致房地产投资进一步加大，个人房地产消费贷款增加，银行信贷规模也将不断扩大。当银行的信贷规模扩大到一定程度的时候，金融风险也将累积到比较高的位置，从而推动金融系统收紧银根，限制房地产企业和消费者个人贷款，从而导致房地产价格的下降。反之，一旦信贷规模缩减，金融系统将会主动放开信贷政策，鼓励房地产投资和消费，将会一定程度上促进房地产价格的上涨本文以淮安市的房地产市场为例，进行了实证分析，根据淮安市统计局公布的数据，对比分析了淮安市近两年中12个月人民币贷款余额变动和商品房平均成交价格变动情况，通过一元线性回归分析，证实了二者之间的关系。94487

毕业论文关 键 词：房地产，银行信贷，金融风险，回归分析 

Abstract: In this paper, the real estate industry in China, the relationship between the real estate credit and real estate prices were systematically analyzed。 When real estate prices rises, will lead to further increase investment in real estate, personal real estate consumer loans increased, the scale of bank credit will continue to expand。 When the size of bank credit expands to a certain extent, the financial risk will be accumulated to a relatively high position。 It will promote the financial system to tighten monetary policy, real estate enterprises and consumer loans, resulting in a decline in the price of real estate。 On the other hand, once the credit scale is reduced, the financial system will take the initiative to open credit policy, encourage real estate investment and consumption, it will partly promote the rise in real estate prices。 The relationship between the real estate credit and real estate prices is mutual influence and complement each other。 In this paper, the real estate market in Jiangsu Province as an example, the empirical analysis, according to the Huaian Bureau of statistics released data, comparative analysis of the changes in the real estate industry for nearly 12 months, the balance of RMB loans and average price of commercial residential building, confirmed the relationship。

Keywords: real estate industry; bank credit; financial risk; regression analysis

目   录

1  引言 5

1。1  研究背景 5

1。2 研究思路和研究方法 5

2。 房地产概述 6

2。1房地产的概念 6

2。2我国房地产的发展历程 6

2。3淮安市房地产市场特点 7

3。金融贷款对房地产价格的影响 8

3。1房地产市场长期供不应求 8

3。2信贷政策对消费者购房决策的影响 8

3。3房地产贷款对开发商的影响 9

4。房地产价格对银行信贷规模的影响 10

4。1房地产市场对宏观经济的影响 10

4。2房地产影响银行信贷政策的因素 11

4。3房地产价格对银行信贷规模的影响 12

5．淮安市房地产价格和信贷规模的关系实证分析 13

5。1淮安市房地产价格的变化分析 13