摘要：近几年来，国家为了抑制房地产市场过热，房价过高，出台了一系列紧缩型宏观调控政策。在当前市场环境下，市场竞争不断加剧，经济增速缓慢，房地产上市公司的生存环境不再像以前一样宽松，所面临的财务风险也在增加。77006

为了量化房地产上市公司的财务风险，本文选取Logistic回归模型和财务比率加以分析，重点研究和分析高风险点产生的原因，从而使管理层对企业财务风险的严重程度有全面了解，并及时采取控制措施降低企业财务风险。

本文搜集了众多参考文献，前人的理论心得，对房地产上市公司可能出现的财务风险加以甄别、分析风险成因，并且提出控制及防范措施。

毕业论文关键词： 房地产；财务风险；风险评估；逻辑回归

The search of the financial risks of the real estate listed companies

Abstract In recent years, in order to curb the overheated property market and excessive housing prices, the government has introduced a series of tightening macro-control policies。 In the current market environment, since the market competition is intensifying and the economic growth is slow, the living environment of the real estate listed companies are no longer as loose as before, therefore, the financial risks are also increasing。

In order to help the management has a comprehensive understanding of the severity of the financial risks of enterprise, and take timely control measures to reduce financial risk, this paper selects the Logistic regression model and financial ratios,which can quantify the financial risk of the real estate listed companies, and analyses the causes of high risk。

In this paper, a collection of many references,reference to the experience of previous theory, the financial risks that may arise in the real estate listed companies, analysis the causes, and put forward control and prevention measures。

Key Words: real estate; financial risk; risk assessment; logistic regression

目录

1 绪论 1

1。1  房地产行业发展现状 1

1。2 研究意义 3

2 房地产上市公司财务风险概述 4

2。1 房地产业与房地产企业的含义 4

2。1。1 房地产业的含义 4

2。1。2 房地产企业的含义 4

2。2 房地产财务风险概述 4

2。2。1 风险的含义 4

2。2。2 财务风险的含义 5

2。3 房地产企业财务风险类别及成因分析 5

2。3。1 房地产企业财务风险类别 5

2。3。2 房地产企业财务风险成因分析 6

3 财务风险分类及指标体系构建 9

3。1 房地产上市公司财务风险分类 9

3。1。1 筹资风险 9

3。1。2 投资风险 11

3。1。3 资产营运风险 11

3。1。4 流动性风险 12

3。2 财务风险指标体系构建 12

4 财务风险预警模型的构建及检验 14

4。1 流程设计 14

4。2 Logistic模型介绍