摘要捕获再捕获法是基于抽样理论，通过评价现存的两个或多个不完整的数据来源之间个体的重叠程度来估计总体包含的个体数，是一种在确定水平上对率进行校正的方法。本文主要对捕获与再捕获的认知与运用进行研究。首先文章分析了如今捕获与再捕获的相关研究背景，继而对捕获与再捕获的理论进行研究。通过对捕获再捕获相关文献的研究和理解，针对男性同性恋人群基数、恶性肿瘤的流行与变化趋势和5岁以下儿童死亡人数这三个问题进行研究，完整的罗列出前期的准备工作包括调查方法、数据收集等方面，后期的数据处理以及注意事项。通过使用捕获再捕获方法针对男性同性恋人群基数、恶性肿瘤的流行与变化趋势和5岁以下儿童死亡人数提出合理、易行的解决方案并对使用捕获再捕获法的各方面条件进行审视。86484

关键词：捕获再捕获；封闭性；独立性

Abstract Capture and recapture method is based on sampling theory。 It estimates the total number of inpiduals in a population by evaluating the degree of overlap between the existing two or more incomplete data sources。 This is a method to correct the rate at the level of determination。 In this paper, we mainly study the cognition and application of capture and recapture。 First of all, the paper analyzes the research background of capture and recapture, and then studies the theory of capture and recapture。 Through the research and understanding of the literature related to capture and recapture, the prevalence and trends of the base of male homosexual population, the prevalence of malignant tumors and the number of deaths of the children under five years old are studied。 Then we complete a list of pre-preparation work including survey methods, data collection, etc。 And the data processing and matters needing attention have been listing out。 A reasonable and feasible solution was put forward by using the capture and recapture method for the prevalence and variation trend of the male homosexual population, the trend of the malignant tumor and the number of deaths in children under five years old。 Meanwhile we examine the conditions of using the capture recapture method。

Keywords: capture and recapture; sealing property; independence

目  录

第一章 前言 1

第二章 对捕获再捕获的认识 2

2。1 捕获与再捕获的概述 2

2。2 捕获与再捕获的模型 2

2。3估计量 3

第三章 应用捕获再捕获研究某地男性同性恋人群基数 6

3。1应用原因及对象 6

3。1。1 应用原因 6

3。1。2 应用对象 6

3。2 调查方法 6

3。2。1调查场所 6

3。2。2协助调查人员 7

3。2。3问卷调查与标记 7

3。3 资料收集与整理 7

3。3。1资料分类 7

3。3。2捕获期与捕获间期 7

3。3。3匹配 8

3。4 统计方法及原理 8

3。5注意事项 9

第四章 应用捕获再捕获分析某地恶性肿瘤的流行与变化趋势 10

4。1应用原因