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【摘要】笔者利用问卷调查法，对不同层次的劳动者进行调查访问，基于中国现如今的基本国情理性的剖析中国"人口红利”问题，笔者认为中国存在"人口机会窗口”，但是中国如今面临的是人口问题而非"人口红利”，在我国人口基数庞大的国情下，面对劳动力过剩、就业形势严峻等问题，真正获得红利的是用工单位而不是劳动者或者国家。改革开放以来中国经济快速发展并不是"人口红利”推动的，是经济制度改革的作用，并且经济快速发展得同时，我国的资源能源迅速消耗，环境污染也面临很大的问题。并且笔者认为我国人口老龄化人口比重的逐渐增加带来的是"人口机会窗口”的关闭，并不意着我国会出现劳动力短缺的现象，提高劳动人口素质、促进产业结构优化升级迫在眉睫。31562
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【毕业论文关键词】人口红利；人口机会窗口；人口问题；资源环境；产业结构优化升级
Abstract: Using the questionnaire survey, the different levels of the laborers to survey, based on China's basic national conditions has now rational analysis of China's "demographic pidend" problem, the author thinks that China's "demographic window of opportunity", but China is now facing the population problem rather than a "demographic pidend", in China's large population base, under the conditions of labor surplus, the grim situation of employment problem, really a pidend is accepting entity rather than laborer or countries. China's rapid economic development since the reform and opening up is not "demographic pidend", is a function of economic system reform, and rapid economic development at the same time, the rapid consumption of energy resources, environmental pollution is also facing a big problem. And the author thinks that China's aging population increase is brought about by the "demographic window of opportunity" closed, does not mean that our country will appear the phenomenon of labor shortage, improve the quality of the labor force, promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure is imminent.
Keywords: demographic pidend，demographic window of opportunity，population problem，resources and environment，the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure
目录
1 引言 3
2 基于中国国情的“人口红利”辨析 3
2.1 中国的人口转变是国家采取强制性政策形成的 3
2.2 中国人口基数大，劳动力剩余严重，就业问题突出 4
2.3 不能仅以理论抚养比来判断中国是否在收获人口红利 5
2.4 真正获得红利的是具体的用工单位 7
2.5 人口红利并非推动中国经济增长的决定性因素 9
2.5.1 银行储蓄率的上升不是普通劳动人口的贡献 9
2.5.2 我国经济快速增长的主要原因是国家政策 10
2.5.3 中国经济的快速发展是以资源过度消耗和环境破坏为代价的 11
2.6 中国并不会出现劳动力短缺现象 12
3 面对“人口红利”的理性选择 12
3.1 提高人口素质，丰富优质人力资源 12
3.2 建立完善的农民工权益保障体制和培训体制 13
3.3 实现产业结构优化升级，充分开发利用适龄劳动人口人力资源 13
3.4 认清人口形势，不要用人口红利误导人口政策 13