摘  要 人民币汇率问题包括两方面，一是人民币汇率变动对中国和外国的外贸收支状况的影响，二是怎样在现实经济中对人民币汇率制度进行选择。这两个问题又衍生出很多中外贸易关系中的其他的问题，特别是在中美经贸关系方面，人民币汇率问题更是中美贸易频繁争端的焦点。因此，一方面，人民币汇率改革不断深化，人民币币值也在不断提升;另一方而，中美贸易顺差不仅没有缩小，反而又逐渐的扩大的趋势。从直观上来看，将中美贸易顺差归咎于人民币汇率显然有失偏颇，据此要求人民币进一步地升值，国内外一些人士断言人民币升值就能解决日益恶化的中美贸易失衡问题，显然也过于主观武断。   

本文抓住人民币汇率和中美贸易这两个方面，分析人民币汇率对中美贸易的影响，并在对中美经贸关系的历史进行总结后，分析了汇率变动对进出口价格的影响，进而利用协整分析方法研究了汇率变动对短期和长期贸易收支的影响，随后又对人民币汇率制度进行了研究，讨论了当前以及未来一段时间内汇率制度的稳定性。通过分析，本文得出了汇率变动对短期贸易收支有一定影响，而对长期贸易收支影响很小的结论，同时认为人民币汇率制度一段时间内应该保持稳定，不应贸然升值。89732

毕业论文关键词：中国；国际收支；影响因素；研究

Abstract The RMB exchange rate issue includes two aspects, one is the impact of RMB exchange rate on the foreign tradebalance of payments situation China and foreign, two is how the RMB exchange rate system in the real economy to choose。 These two problems derived from other problems in many Chinese and foreign trade relations, especially in the Sino US economic and trade relations, the issue of RMB exchange rate is the focus of Sino US tradefrequent disputes。 Therefore, on the one hand, the RMB exchange rate reform deepening, the value of the renminbi is rising; on the other hand, Sino US trade surplus is not reduced, but also gradually expanding trend。From the visual point of view, Sino US trade surplus will blame the RMB exchange rate is obviously biased, then demand further currency appreciation at home and abroad, some people assert that the appreciation of the renminbi will be able to solve the problem of Sino US trade imbalance worsening, apparently too subjective and arbitrary。

In this paper, the RMB exchange rate and trade to seize these two aspects, analysis of the impact of RMB exchange rate on Sino US trade, and summarized in the history of Sino US economic and trade relations, analyzes the impact of exchange rate changes on import and export prices, and then use the cointegration analysis method to study the impact of exchange rate changes on the short-term and long-term trade balance, then on the RMB exchange rate system is studied, discusses the stability of exchange rate system in the current and future a period of time。 Through the analysis, this paper draws the exchange rate change has a certain effect on the short-termbalance of trade, but has little influence on the long-term trade balance of the conclusion, at the same time that theRMB exchange rate regime within a period of time should remain stable, should not rashly appreciation。

Keywords: exchange rate; trade balance; exchange rate system; Sino US trade

Keywords: exchange rate; trade balance; exchange rate system; Sino US trade

目  录 

摘  要 I

ABSTRACT II

引言 1

一、人民币汇率背景 1

（一）人民币汇率演进过程 1

（二） 汇率低估对中国对外贸易源Q于W优E尔A论S文R网wwW.yOueRw.com 原文+QQ75201,8766 发展影响的历史性回顾