AHP淮安市滑坡影响因子评价指标体系建立摘要：滑坡危险性评价是辅助滑坡预警和决策的前提。本文根据对淮安滑坡灾害数据的综合分析，确定了淮安市滑坡影响因子。采用层次分析法（AHP）确定各评价因子的权重，并以此为基础建立滑坡危险性评价指标体系。通过GIS空间分析功能进行栅格运算，得出研究区滑坡灾害危险性分区（高危险区、中危险区、低危险区、极低危险区和稳定区）。并将评价结果与淮安滑坡灾害统计数据相比较，结果表明划分结果符合该区滑坡灾害的实际情况，证明了该评价体系的科学性和准确性。在淮安地区，滑坡高风险区主要位于仇集镇、河桥镇，中风险区位于穆店乡、王店乡，低风险区位于老子山附近、淮河及洪泽湖沿岸一带。该研究是对淮安地区地质灾害风险评价的有益尝试，成果可以为淮安地质灾害防治提供决策依据。91098

毕业论文关键词：滑坡，危险性评价，层次分析法，GIS，淮安

Abstract： Landslide hazard assessment is important for landslide warning and decision making。 According to the comprehensive analysis of Huai'an landslide disaster data, the influencing factors of landslide was determined to establish the landslide hazard evaluation system。 Additionally, the method of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to determine the weight of each evaluated factor。 The spatial analysis function of GIS system was also used to assess the risk of landslide hazard in the study area。 Comparing the results with the hazard statistics of Huaian landslide, the results showed that the assessment system is suitable for actual situation of the landslide disaster in this area。 The landslide hazard of Huaian is pided into five regions, named high - risk area, middle - risk area, low - risk area, very low - risk area and stable area。 In the Huaian , the high risk area of the landslide is mainly located in Qiuji Town, Heqiao Town。 The middle risk area is located in Mudian Township, Wangdian Township, and the low risk area is located in regions around Laozi Mountain, along the Huaihe River and Hongze Lake。 This study is an attempt to evaluate the geological disasters in Huai'an area, which can provide the decision basis for geological disaster prevention of Huaian。

Keywords：Landslide, Hazard evaluation, Analytic Hierarchy Process, GIS, Huaian

目 录

1 前 言 4

2 研究区概况和数据 5

3 研究方法 6

3。1 研究区滑坡灾害发生的影响因素 7

3。2 标准化方法 7

3。3 滑坡评价体系 8

3。4 层次分析法 8

4 评价结果分析 11

4。1 评价指标获取分析 11

4。2 危险性评价结果分析 15

结 论 19

参考文献 20

致 谢 21

1前言论文网

滑坡是地壳表层的一种灾变地质现象，也是仅次于地震灾害的第二大地质灾害[1]。它常常摧毁建筑、堵塞交通、造成人员伤亡、给生态环境和工程建设带来严重危害。据不完全统计，我国每年因滑坡、崩塌等斜坡变形破坏而造成的损失高达30-50亿美元[1]。准确计算滑坡等自然灾害的危险性，人们可以尽早采取减灾防灾措施和对策，使灾害造成的损失减少到最低程度。因此，开展滑坡灾害危险性评价具有十分重要的现实意义和巨大的经济与社会效益。