Delphi方法多个专家数据的集成方法
关键词 不确定性理论 不确定统计 Delphi方法
毕业论文设计说明书外文摘要
Title Integrated Method of Multiple Experts’ Data
Abstract
The uncertainty theory is to study of subjective uncertainty phenomenon. Un-
certain statistics is a method for collecting and analyzing expert’s experimental
data by uncertainty theory. Compared to probability statistics which is based on
historical data, uncertain statistics is based on experimental data. In the field of uncertain statistics, there are principle of least squares and method of moments to estimate the unknown parameters. And for multiple domain experts, Delphi method
is used commonly. Delphi method requires experts’ feedback on the previous round
so that they can make a new judgment about altering their opinions. However, this
step may not be practical. In order to make up for it, this paper put forward two
schemes which don’t need experts’ feedback. The feasibility and adaptability of the proposed method is described by numerical experiments.
Keywords uncertainty theory uncertain statistics Delphi method
目 次
1 引言（或绪论） …………………………………………………………………… 1
1.1 不确定性理论 …………………………………………………………………… 1
1.2 不确定统计 …………………………………………………………………… 2
1.3 Delphi方法 …………………………………………………………………… 2
1.4 研究意义 …………………………………………………………………… 3
1.5 本文主要工作和结构安排 …………………………………………………… 4
2 准备知识 ……………………………………………………………………………… 5
3 多个专家数据的集成方法 …………………………………………………………… 8
3.1 方案1 ………………………………………………………………………… 9