风险决策模型及其应用
摘要风险型决策在生产、农业、投资等许多领域有着广泛的运用，不论是企业还是其它投资主体，经常面临众多的项目投资机会，需要从中认真选择。因此，对于风险决策模型的研究有助于提高决策者的风险意识，提高投资项目组合决策的合理性和有效性，从而降低投资项目的组合成本，提高投资的效益，避免投资的盲目性。因此，本文的研究具有十分重要的理论意义和实际意义。本文研究的主要内容有三部分组成：50434
首先，本文从风险型的概念和特点出发，介绍了风险型决策方法的具体含义、特点、基础和原则等问题。其次，在介绍风险决策相关概念的基础上给出了风险决策模型中常用到的三种风险决策方法，即最大可能决策法、期望值决策法和树型决策法等三种常见用的风险决策方法。最后，通过两个具体的案例详细介绍了期望值决策方法和树型决策方法在风险模型中的具体应用。
Risk type decision has been widely used in many fields of production, agriculture, investment, enterprises and other investment entities, often face many investment chances and need to choose from.Research on risk decision making model of help in decision-making to improve the consciousness of risk, improve the rationality and validity of the investment project portfolio decision-making, reduce investment project portfolio cost, improve investment efficiency, avoid the investment blindness. Therefore, the research of this paper has very important theoretical significance and practical significance. The main content of this paper is composed of three parts:
First of all, this article from the concept of risk type and characteristics, introduced the risk decision-making method of the specific meaning, characteristics, basis and principles and so on.Secondly, after introducing the concepts of risk decision based on the given risk decision-making model used to the three risk decision-making method, namely the maximum possible decision method, expectations value decision method and tree type decision method of three common used risk decision-making method.Finally, two examples are introduced in detail the specific application of expected value decision method and decision making method in the risk model in the tree.
毕业论文关键词：风险 决策 期望值 树型
Keywords: Risk Decision Expectation value Tree
目录
摘 要 1
Abstract 1
目 录 2
1.绪论 3
1.1 选题背景 3
1.2 选题意义 3
1.3 研究内容 3
1.4 研究方法 4
2.风险决策的概述 4
2.1 风险型决策问题的特点 4
2.2 风险型决策的基础和原则 5
2.2.1 风险型决策的基础 5
2.2.2 风险型决策的原则 5
3.风险决策的常用方法 5
3.1 最大可能决策法 5
3.2 期望值决策法 6
3.3 树型决策法 6
4.风险决策模型的应用 7
4.1期望值决策法在风险决策中的应用