摘要：商品住宅价格走势一直是百姓平时关注的话题，其所属的房地产行业更是国家经济向上发展的重中之重。本文首先阐述了国内外商品住宅价格影响研究的背景和意义，其次介绍了商品住宅价格及其成因和影响因素，结合分析全国和上海的房地产现状以及阐述轨道交通发展对商品住宅价格的影响，最后以地铁五号线延伸段沿边奉贤南桥区域的典型楼盘——聚贤煌都为案例，通过对其价格波动分析的基础上，运用理论模型对该楼盘该地块未来价格走势做出预测，从而总结地铁五号线延伸段对南桥板块商品住宅价格的影响。42832

毕业论文关键词: 商品住宅；轨道交通；线型模型；灰色模型；长期趋势法

The affection of the price of commercial housing as line five extension section of Fengxian Nanqiao plate

Abstract: Commercial housing price trend has been the subject of attention of the people, the real estate industry which belongs to the country is the most important national economic development. First of all, this thesis describes the background and significance of domestic commercial housing price influence study, followed by the introduction of the commodity housing price and its causes and effects of factors, combined analysis through national and Shanghai real estate situation and expounded the effection of the development of rail transportation on the price of commercial housing,at last using the MTR 5th line extension segment along the border of Fengxian area of the typical real estate -- CentreStage Huang all as a case, based on analysis of the price fluctuation, the use of theoretical models predict the future price movements of the sale of the land, and to summarize the effection of the MTR 5th line extension on Nanqiao plate residential commodity prices.

KeyWords: Commercial housing；Rail transit；Linear model；Grey model；Long term trend method

 目录

1绪论 1

 1.1 研究背景 1

 1.2 研究状况 1

   1.2.1 国内研究综述 1

   1.2.2 国外研究综述 2

 1.3 研究内容与方法 2

 1.4研究意义 3

2商品住宅价格及其影响因素 4

 2.1 商品住宅及其价格 4

 2.2 商品住宅价格的成因 4

 2.3 商品住宅价格影响因素 5

3房地产市场现状 7

 3.1 全国房地产市场现状 7

 3.2 上海市房地产市场现状 8

4轨道交通发展对商品住宅价格的影响 14

 4.1 轨道交通对国内外商品住宅的价格影响 14

   4.1.1 轨道交通对国内商品住宅的价格影响 14

   4.1.2 轨道交通对国外商品住宅的价格影响 14

 4.2 上海市轨道交通分布 17

 4.3 上海市轨道交通对商品住宅价格的影响 18

5上海奉贤南桥板块商品住宅价格及其现状 20

 5.1 上海奉贤南桥板块商品住宅市场状况 20

 5.2 上海奉贤南桥板块商品住宅价格现状