摘要随着能源消费总量的日益增长,以光伏发电为主要形式的太阳能发电得到了很大的发展。但是配电网的潮流分布会受到光伏并网的影响。比如多个光伏系统同时并网时存在的出力之间的相关性问题、光伏发电与天气环境的密切关系导致的随机性问题。为研究以上问题，本文建立传统的Beta分布模型后，以spearman相关系数为基础，采用秩相关来描述关联程度，通过对光伏采样值重新排序，生成可以满足指定相关系数的样本。将样本值带入系统后采用了蒙特卡罗模拟法及改进后的拉丁超立方采样法，得到潮流分布情况，并比较两种算法的优劣。最后本文以IEEE-33节点测试系统为例详细地讨论了分布式光伏的相关性、容量与位置对配电网运行的影响，比如对节点的电压、支路的功率和网损的平均值和标准差的影响。并以IEEE-30系统作为对比，分析光伏电站的关联性对输电网产生的影响。82673

毕业论文关键词  光伏发电   随机潮流   spearman秩相关   牛顿-拉夫逊法   蒙特卡罗模拟   拉丁超立方采样

毕业设计说明书外文摘要

Title     Probabilistic load flow for distribution network of large-scale distributed systems with photovoltaic generation                                       

Abstract With the increasing of the energy consumption, photovoltaic power generation, as the main form of solar power, has been a great development。 But the grid connected photovoltaic systems will have a certain impact on the load flow distribution。 For example, when a plurality of photovoltaic systems is connected to grid simultaneously, we need to consider the correlation between the output。And the close relationship between the photovoltaic power generation and the weather environment also leads to the randomness of the output。 In order to study the above problems, the traditional Beta distribution model is established in this paper first。And then,based on the spearman correlation coefficient, We use rank correlation to describe the degree of correlation and generate a sample that meets to the specified correlation coefficient through reordering the sample。 After the sample value is brought into the system, the Monte Carlo simulation method and the improved Latin hypercube sampling method are used to get the power flow distribution, and the advantages and disadvantages of this two algorithms will also be compared 。Taking IEEE-33 node test system as an example，The effects from the correlation, capacity and location of distributed PV on the operation of the distributed network are analyzed in detail, such as the mean and standard deviation of the node voltage，branch power and network loss。 Then with the IEEE-30 system as a comparison, the influence of the photovoltaic power station on the transmission network is analyzed。   

Keywords  Photovoltaic power generation     Probabilistic load flow 

Spearman rank correlation         Newton-Raphson method 

Monte Carlo simulation            Latin hypercube sampling

目   录

1  引言 1

1。1  研究背景和意义 1

1。2  国内外研究现状 2

1。3  论文主要工作 6

2  系统模型建立 8

2。1  随机模型建立 8

2。2  相关性模型建立 10